Nikkei 225 (^N225)

Composite signal at decile 4/10 (NEUTRAL) as of 2026-06-12 → calibrated P(8%+ drawdown within 120 trading days) = 11% (base rate 14%)

composite hit decile 9-10 (high warning) on 881 days; of those, 186 (21%) preceded a real 8%+ drawdown over the next 120 days · base rate 13.7%