Bitcoin (BTC-USD)

Composite signal at decile 7/10 (WATCH) as of 2026-06-12 → calibrated P(8%+ drawdown within 120 trading days) = 31% (base rate 25%)

composite hit decile 9-10 (high warning) on 254 days; of those, 126 (50%) preceded a real 8%+ drawdown over the next 120 days · base rate 25.9%